But again, with numbers this large and the first film paying for most of the costs associated with the entire trilogy, this is more about pride than a return on investments. Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit is the only big movie opening wide next month outside of the expansion of Mark Wahlberg's Lone Survivor.Īll of this is a way of saying that I don't feel entirely comfortable making any kind of box office predictions at this point, not even regarding opening weekend (off the record I'd say just over/under the $83m that the last Hobbit debuted with). Now of course the entire Hobbit trilogy basically paid for itself via the last film, so whatever money the last two make is all-but icing on a very lucrative cake. For the record, when I talk about lower grosses the second time around, I'm not talking about anything resembling a flop or even a financial disappointment.Įven if The Hobbit part 2 of 3 ends up taking a substantial dive, it's still probably looking at (off the top of my head and not official predictions) $240 million domestic and $750m worldwide. We're still talking massive numbers. The Peter Jackson sequel/prequel is still going to benefit from those legendary December legs, a lack of mega-fantasy competition over Christmas weekend (it's mostly Oscar bait and adult genre fare) as well as a relatively weak January slate. Even if The Hobbit 2 is "better" than The Hobbit 1, we're still looking at a situation not unlike Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones where the more action-packed and crowd-pleasing sequel ($649m) made less than the allegedly unloved original ($925m).
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